December 31, 2008, Nifty

Nifty clearly broke its downtrend and is setup for an uptrend. We will follow the uptrend with strict stop losses. Asia is up this morning. Nifty could open a touch up.

Trading strategy: Go long with stop loss at 2899
Supports: 2899-2919, 2812
Resistances: 3110, 3240

December 31, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday RIL broke its resistance zone between 1230 and 1240. However volumes were very low. It looks like RIL is beginning an uptrend, which we will follow with strict stop losses.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1228
Supports: 1228-1240, 1188
Resistances: 1275, 1407

Infy - Infy made a higher high and higher low yesterday. However it is still below the 5-EMA. We will watch to see if infy is able to break the 5-EMA at 1135.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistance/support breaks/bounces.
Supports: 1065-1085, 1040
Resistances: 1135, 1222

December 30, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continued its down trend yesterday, however it bounce back sharply from the support at 2812. Asia is up this morning. Nifty could open a touch up. We will look to book profits on our short today.

Trading strategy: Move stop loss to 2931. Look to book profits.
Supports: 2812, 2714
Resistances: 2916-2931, 3110

December 30, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL moved up sharply yesterday. However it still made a lower high and a lower low. RIL is not yet in an uptrend.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistance/support breaks/bounces.
Supports: 1230-1240, 1188
Resistances: 1275, 1407

Infy - Yesterday was a doji for Infy, indicating a possible trend reversal.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistance/support breaks/bounces.
Supports: 1065-1085, 1040
Resistances: 1140, 1222

December 29, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continued its down trend. We move our stop loss and follow the down trend. Asian markets are down today. Nifty could open a touch down.

Trading strategy: Stay short with a stop loss at 2960.
Supports: 2812, 2714
Resistances: 2872, 2960

December 29, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL arrested its downtrend on Friday. Friday was also an engulfing candle indicating a possible trend reversal. We hit our stop loss on Friday and booked our profits.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistance/support breaks/bounces.
Supports: 1107, 1050
Resistances: 1250, 1407

Infy - Infy fell sharply on Friday. We will not watch to see where Infy will take support.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistance/support breaks/bounces.
Supports: 1077-1085, 1040
Resistances: 1152, 1222

December 26, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continued its down trend. We move our stop loss and follow the down trend. Asian markets are up today. Nifty could open a touch up.

Trading strategy: Stay short with a stop loss at 2968.
Supports: 2873, 2812
Resistances: 2968, 3040

December 26, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL continued its downtrend on Wednesday. We will follow the downtrend to see where RIL can find a support to bounce back from.
Trading Strategy: Stay short and move stop loss to 1257.
Supports: 1218, 1107
Resistances: 1285, 1377

Infy - Infy made large moves yesterday but closed near its open, to form a doji. We will wait and watch for a clear signal.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistance/support breaks/bounces.
Supports: 1172-75, 1085
Resistances: 1206, 1321

December 24, 2008, Nifty

Nifty has started a down trend. We move our stop loss and follow the down trend. Asian markets are down today. Nifty could open down.

Trading strategy: Stay short with a stop loss at 3040.
Supports: 3033, 2922
Resistances: 3040, 3110

December 24, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL fell sharply yesterday. We will now see where RIL can find a support to bounce back from.
Trading Strategy: Stay short and move stop loss to 1285.
Supports: 1260, 1107
Resistances: 1281, 1377

Infy - Infy hit our stop loss yesterday and we booked profits. We will now look to see where Infy can find a support to bounce back from.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistance/support breaks/bounces.
Supports: 1172, 1085
Resistances: 1206, 1321

December 23, 2008, Nifty

Nifty has clearly broken its uptrend. Asian markets are down today. Nifty could open down.
Trading strategy: Go short with a stop loss at 3110.
Supports: 3033, 2922
Resistances: 3110, 3240

December 23, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday was a clear break in the uptrend. We will now see where RIL can find a support to bounce back from.
Trading Strategy: Go short with stop loss at 1377
Supports: 1268, 1107
Resistances: 1377 ,1505
Infy - On Monday, Infy continued its up trend with a higher high and higher low. We move our stop loss up and follow the up-trend.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with strict stop loss. We move up the stop loss to Monday's low of 1166.
Supports: 1166, 1085
Resistances: 1206, 1321

December 22, 2008, Nifty

Nifty moved up sharply on Friday. Asian markets are up today. Nifty could open up. If Nifty is able to break the strong resistance at 3148, it will be a medium term positive.
Trading strategy: If Nifty closes below 3034, go short with stop loss at 3076.
Supports: 3034, 2812
Resistances: 3148, 3240

December 22, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Friday RIL made a higher high and higher low. However it was also a doji candle. We will look for further price action before taking a position.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1283, 1107
Resistances: 1505, 1668

Infy - On Friday, Infy continued its up trend with a higher high and higher low. We move our stop loss up and follow the up-trend.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with strict stop loss. We move up the stop loss to Friday's low of 1149.
Supports: 1149, 1085
Resistances: 1206, 1321

December 19, 2008, Nifty

We hit our stop loss yesterday. Nifty rallied smartly. However it was an engulfing candle, which indicates a trend reversal. We are looking for a sharp move on the down side today.
Trading strategy: If Nifty closes below 3010, go short with stop loss at 3076.
Supports: 3010, 2812
Resistances: 3076, 3148

December 19, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - As expected, RIL ended its uptrend yesterday. We now look to see where RIL will take support. 1283 looks like a strong support.

Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1283,1107
Resistances: 1505, 1668

Infy - Yesterday Infy made a strong up-move, with a higher high and higher low. We move our stop loss up and follow the up-trend.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with strict stop loss. We move up the stop loss to yesterday's low of 1145.
Supports: 1145, 1085
Resistances: 1206, 1321

December 18, 2008, Nifty

Nifty went below its 5-SMA. It also made a lower low. The rally is over. We now look to see where the Nifty will find support and from a base for its next rally.

Trading strategy: Go short with stop loss at 2975
Supports: 2917, 2856
Resistances: 2975, 3076

December 18, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL continued its uptrend yesterday. However it closed below Tuesday's close, indicating that the trend might fizzle out today.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1329, 1283
Resistances: 1505, 1668

Infy - Yesterday Infy made a strong up-move, with a higher high and higher low. However yesterday was also a doji candle, indicating indecision. Keep stop losses strict.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with strict stop loss. We move up the stop loss to yesterday's low of 1123.
Supports: 1123-1130, 1085
Resistances: 1127, 1206

December 17, 2008, Nifty

A strong performance by the Nifty means that the rally continues. Asia is up this morning. We look to see if Nifty can continue this rally or if the rally will fizzle out today. If the Nifty can break out above 3148 in this rally it will a strong positive for the medium term (weeks)

Trading strategy: If Nifty closes below 2917, go short.
Supports: 2966, 2917
Resistances: 3148, 3240

December 17, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL continued its uptrend on Tuesday. We made a mistake and took profits too early. RIL went above its 50-SMA on Tuesday. This is another strong positive signal. We are still looking to see if this uptrend is able to break out of 1505.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1325, 1283
Resistances: 1505, 1668

Infy - Infy continued to show signs of breaking the downtrend. However, Infy failed to establish a clear uptrend. Keep stop losses strict.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with strict stop loss at 1085.
Supports: 1085, 1040
Resistances: 1127, 1206

December 16, 2008, Nifty

Asian markets are a touch down. Nifty could open a bit down. For the last two days, the mid-cap indices have outperformed the Nifty. This is a negative indication. We look to see if Nifty can continue this rally or if the rally will fizzle out today.

Trading strategy: If Nifty closes below 2917, go short.
Supports: 2938, 2917
Resistances: 3148, 3240

December 16, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL continued its uptrend on Monday. However Monday was a doji, indicating a possible pause or reversal in the uptrend. If you have been following the uptrend, take profits now.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1283, 1100
Resistances: 1505, 1668

Infy - Yesterday, Infy did not break the support of 1040. It also made a higher high and higher low. Infy is showing signs of breaking the downtrend.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1077
Supports: 1077, 1040
Resistances: 1128, 1206

December 15, 2008, Nifty

Friday was a doji, as well as a lower high and lower low. Asia is up this morning so Nifty should also be up. We will look to see if the rally fizzles out today.

Trading strategy: Book profits in the long positions. If Nifty closes below 2888 go short. Supports: 2888, 2570
Resistances: 3148, 3240

December 15, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - On Friday RIL continued its uptrend. We will look to see if this uptrend lasts in the medium term; For that RIL must stay above the previous pivot of 1103
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1228, 1100
Resistances: 1331, 1505

Infy - Friday was a lower high and a lower low in Infy. Infy is not clearly on a down trend. It has also broken the support at 1090. The next support is at 1077.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1077, 1040
Resistances: 1206, 1299

December 11, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continued on its rally yesterday. We move our stop loss up to yesterday's low. Asia is down, so we could open a touch down.
Trading strategy: Stay long. Keep stop loss at yesterday's low of 2785.
Supports: 2785, 2570
Resistances: 3148, 3240

December 11, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday RIL surged sharply indicating a break-out. The 5-SMA has also gone above the 20-SMA, which is another strong indicator. However since yesterday was a sharp move, we will wait for today's trading session to take a position.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1136-1157, 1100
Resistances: 1362, 1505

Infy - Yesterday was a higher high and a higher low in Infy. Following the doji of Monday, this is a strong indication of the beginning of an uptrend.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1138
Supports: 1123-1138, 1090
Resistances: 1206, 1299

December 10, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continued on its rally on Monday, though there was a sharp pull-back later in the day. Nifty still made a higher high and lower low. We move our stop loss up to yesterday's low. Asia is a touch up, so Nifty could open up.
Trading strategy: Stay long. Keep stop loss at Monday's low of 2714.
Supports: 2736-2757, 2570
Resistances: 2861, 3280

December 10, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - On Monday, RIL failed to break the previous high of 1182. The rally is now in question. We move the stop loss to Yesterday's low of 1107
Trading Strategy: Book profits today.
Supports: 1100-1107, 1050
Resistances: 1182, 1208

Infy - Monday was a doji in Infy. Indicating uncertainty. We will look to see how infy moves over the next trading session.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1120, 1090
Resistances: 1168, 1223

December 8, 2008, Nifty

Nifty made a higher high and lower low yesterday. We move our stop loss up to Friday's low.
Trading strategy: Stay long. Keep stop loss at Friday's low of 2701.
Supports: 2701, 2570
Resistances: 2777, 2832

December 8, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL is still in a rally in spite of the fall on Friday. We move the stop loss to Friday's close of 1103
Trading Strategy: Stay long. Follow the rally with a trailing stop. If RIL goes below 1105, close position.
Supports: 1105, 1050
Resistances: 1208, 1303

Infy - Infy did not rally and we hit our stop loss. We will wait for the next clear signal before taking another position
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 1123, 1090
Resistances: 1223, 1299

December 5, 2008, Nifty

In yesterday's sharp upmove, Nifty went above its 5-SMA. The next target is the previous high of 2832. Asia is flat this morning, so we expect a flat opening.

Trading strategy: If you went long yesterday, keep stop loss at yesterday's low of 2646.
Supports: 2570, 2502
Resistances: 2777, 2832

December 5, 2008, Single Stock

Sorry for missing yesterday's post.
RIL - RIL broke 5-day and 20-Day SMA in sharp rally yesterday. The near term rally which we predicted has happened. We will follow the rally with a trailing stop.
Trading Strategy: Stay long. Follow the rally with a trailing stop. If RIL goes below 1050, close position.
Supports: 1050, 1025
Resistances: 1208, 1303

Infy - Yesterday was an inside day for infy. This is a reversal signal. We could now see a near term rally in infy.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1140
Supports: 1140, 1090
Resistances: 1223, 1299

December 3, 2008, Nifty

Nifty rallied in the second half of the day to make a nice hammer-doji. Asia is up this morning, so we expect Nifty will open up. If Nifty is able to hold above 2712 we could see a near term rally.

Trading strategy: If Nifty closes above 2712, go long
Supports: 2570, 2502
Resistances: 2712, 2783

December 3, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke the previous low of 1032, but only just. The close near a support combined with a doji hammer candle indicates a near term rally for RIL.
Trading Strategy: If RIL opens up, Go long with stop loss at 1025
Supports: 1025, 930
Resistances: 1114, 1180

Infy - There is still no clear trend we can find in Infy. We will wait till we see a clear trend or a signal.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces, with strict stop losses.
Supports: 1120, 1090
Resistances: 1234, 1299

December 2, 2008, Nifty

We hit our stop loss yesterday. 2690, we ended up with about 4% gain. Dow crashed overnight and we expect Nifty to open gap down today. In the recent rally Nifty made a lower high that the previous high of 3148. We now look to see if it can hold above 2630-50, if not at least above 2502.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2630-50, 2502
Resistances: 2711, 2783

December 2, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - As predicted, RIL could not break out of 1220 and fell. However RIL was resilient in yesterday's market move. RIL seems to be finding some resistance around 1090. Let us see if RIL can hold above this. Else we will bee looking at the previous low of 1032 for support.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1090, 1032
Resistances: 1180, 1200-1221

Infy - Infy made a higher high and higher low. However it was a doji. We will wait for a clear signal before taking a position.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces, with strict stop losses.
Supports: 1200, 1040
Resistances: 1299, 1355

December 1, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continues on it uptrend after a short break. We still stay long, but move our stop loss up to Friday's low. Asia is a touch down, so Nifty might open down.

Trading strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 2690
Supports: 2702, 2633-2654
Resistances: 2825, 2871

December 1, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a higher high and a higher low on Friday. The uptrend is in place but not yet confirmed. There is a strong resistance around 1221. RIL will have to break out of this to continue the uptrend.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1032, 930
Resistances: 1188-1203, 1221

Infy - Infy has gone above its 5 and 20-EMA. the sharp move we predicted on Friday was in the positive direction. We are looking to see if that was a single day effect or if Infy can start a rally from here.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces, with strict stop losses.
Supports: 1237, 1205
Resistances: 1355, 1447

November 28, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke any clear trend indications yesterday. The uptrend is not yet confirmed. RIL did move above is 5-Day SMA. This is a slight positive indicator.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1032, 930
Resistances: 1198-1205, 1375

Infy - Another indecisive candle on Wednesday. We now expect a major move from Infy. We will wait to see which way the market jumps, and then take a position. Play
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces, with strict stop losses.
Supports: 1186, 1040
Resistances: 1237, 1355

November 28, 2008, Nifty

Over the last three trading sessions Nifty seems have faced a strong support between 2633 and 2654. This could form the base of another short rally if it holds. Asia is up a touch, Nifty should open flat.

Trading strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 2633
Supports: 2702, 2633-2654
Resistances: 2825, 2871

November 26, 2008, Nifty

The rally was clearly stopped yesterday. We will wait to see if yesterday was a pivot point, and if they rally will once again pick up steam. Asia is up this morning so Nifty should open gap up.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 2503, 2253
Resistances: 2810, 2871

November 26, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke any clear trend indications yesterday. The uptrend was not confirmed. We will once again watch for low of 930.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1032, 930
Resistances: 1198-1205, 1375

Infy - Infy clearly exhibited a higher high and higher low yesterday. However yesterday was also a doji, indicating indecision in the market. We will wait to see which way the market jumps, and then take a position.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1090, 1040
Resistances: 1355 , 1447

November 25, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL clearly exhibited a higher high and higher low yesterday. There is now a strong possibility of an uptrend in RIL. The important point is RIL did not go back to its Oct low of 930!
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1114, 1032
Resistances: 1198-1205, 1375

Infy - Infy clearly exhibited a higher high and higher low yesterday. There is now a strong possibility of an uptrend in Infy. We will wait for confirmation.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1090, 1040
Resistances: 1180, 1355

November 25, 2008, Nifty

The rally continued on Monday. Asia is up this morning so Nifty should open gap up.

Trading strategy: Stay Long with a stop loss at Monday's low of 2633. Keep the stop loss strict!
Supports: 2633-2647, 2502
Resistances: 2810, 2871

November 24, 2008, Nifty

Infra problems, so we are posting after market open.

Friday was a clear reversal sign for the Nifty. We could see a short rally from here, but keep the stop loss strict.
Trading strategy: Long with a stop loss at Friday's low of 2540

November 21, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continues its strong downward trend. Asia is down this morning. We expect the Nifty will open touch down. Support of 2524 was taken out yesterday, however Nifty found support at the psychological 2500 level. If Nifty holds today above 2500, we could see a rally for a few days.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2488 , 2257
Resistances: 2668, 2808

November 21, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - We could not confirm an uptrend for Reliance. We are now looking to see if it will make a low higher than the previous low of 930
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1000, 930
Resistances: 1117, 1221

Infy - We are looking to see if 1040 will hold and Infy can reverse its downtrend from here.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1060, 1040
Resistances: 1180, 1355

November 20, 2008, Nifty

Nifty continues its strong downward trend. Asia is down this morning. We expect the Nifty will open down. Support of 2630 was taken out yesterday. The next support is 2524. We are getting closer to the Oct 27 lows. We will watch to see if the Nifty can rebound from there.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2524 , 2257
Resistances: 2749, 2808

November 20, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke its downtrend yesterday. We will look today to see if an uptrend sets in. A close above 1140 would be a good indicator.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1070, 930
Resistances: 1140, 1221

Infy - Infy clearly broke its support at 1160. The next support is at 1040.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1060, 1040
Resistances: 1208, 1355

November 19, 2008, Nifty

Nifty broke the support of 2685, but closed just below it. The next strong support is 2630. If Nifty can bounce back from there it will be a positive signal. Asia is flat to down this morning. We expect the Nifty will have a flat or touch up opening.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2630, 2524
Resistances: 2753, 2808

November 19, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL continued on it downtrend. However RIL closed well above its open, indicating that we could see a reversal signal today.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1070, 930
Resistances: 1159, 1204

Infy - Again, Infy came close to its support of 1160, but did not break it. Nifty also did not make a new low yesterday. It stayed above Monday's low of 1170. We will look to see if Infy will break 1160 today or will bounce back from this level.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1160, 1040
Resistances: 1226, 1355

November 18, 2008, Nifty

Asia is down this morning. We expect the Nifty will have a flat or touch down opening. 20-SMA and 5-SMA are at the same level. If the Nifty could break out now it will be a positive signal.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2753, 2685
Resistances: 2924, 3240

November 18, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL continues on it downtrend. We now need to see if RIL will hold above the previous low of 930.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1000, 930
Resistances: 1169, 1204

Infy - Infy came close to its support of 1160, but did not break it. We will look to see if Infy will break 1160 today or will bounce back from this level.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1160, 1040
Resistances: 1249, 1355

November 17, 2008, Nifty

US closed down on Friday. We expect the Nifty will have a flat or touch down opening. The next support is at 2753, which held on Friday.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2753, 2685
Resistances: 2923, 3240

November 17, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke the support of 1151 on Wednesday. We now need to see if RIL will hold above the previous low of 930.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1000, 930
Resistances: 1262,1375

Infy - Infy broke its support at 1202. We now have a lower low. We will have wait for the next few trading sessions to determine which way infy will move. Things still look positive on the weekly charts. The next important support is 1060.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1160, 1040
Resistances: 1257, 1355

November 14, 2008, Nifty

Nifty fell sharply again on wednesday. Asia is up this morning so we expect the Nifty will be flat. 2860 was broken on wednesday. The next support is at 2753.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2753, 2685
Resistances: 2923, 3240

November 14, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke the support of 1151 on Wednesday. We now need to see if RIL will hold above the previous low of 930.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1000, 930
Resistances: 1234,1375

Infy - Infy came close but did not break the stop loss of 1202. We continue to watch closely to see if Infy can hold above the low or if the stop loss is hit.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1202
Supports: 1202-1200, 1160
Resistances: 1279, 1355

November 12, 2008, Nifty

Nifty fell sharply yesterday. Asia is flat this morning so we expect the Nifty will be flat. 2860 is a strong support. Let us see if that holds.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 2860, 2753
Resistances: 2988, 3240

November 12, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL closed below 1283. We now need to see if RIL will hold above the previous low of 1151.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1150, 930
Resistances: 1234,1375

Infy - We are now close to our stop loss. We now need to see if Infy can hold above the low or if the stop loss is hit.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1202
Supports: 1202-1200, 1160
Resistances: 1355, 1400

November 11, 2008, Nifty

Sorry for missing yesterday. We had some infra issues.
Nifty rallied smartly yesterday. Asia is down this morning so we expect the Nifty will open down. 2860 is a strong support. Let us see if that holds.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3002, 2860
Resistances: 3240, 3648

November 11, 2008, Single Stock

Sorry for missing yesterday. We had some infra issues.
RIL - The reversal candle on Friday and the strong move up yesterday indicates that RIL is ready for an uptrend. RIL needs to close above 1283 for that the uptrend to start.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1283, 1150
Resistances: 1375, 1668

Infy - Infy has made a higher low and we will move out stop loss there. We now need to see if Infy can hold above the low and make a new high.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1202
Supports: 1306, 1202-1200
Resistances: 1400 , 1450

November 07, 2008, Nifty

Nifty was highly volatile yesterday. Asia is down this morning so we expect the Nifty will open down. We will now watch if the Nifty will be able to find a bottom around the next supports.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2753, 2488
Resistances: 3018, 3050

November 07, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL continued its fall yesterday. According to retracements 1065 is the last support before the previous low of 930. We now need to watch if RIL will hold above its previous low or if it will break it.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1065, 930
Resistances: 1360-84, 1668

Infy - Infy was down yesterday, but still outperformed the market as a whole. If Infy can move up today that will mean that yesterday's low of 1230 will be the the new pivot. Also watch closely today as we are close to out stop loss of 1160.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1160, 1040
Resistances: 1303, 1450

November 06, 2008, Nifty

Nifty was unable to clear 3254 and fell sharply from its high of the day. Asia is down this morning so we expect the Nifty will open down. 3017 was a strong support which Nifty broke yesterday. We will now watch if the Nifty will be able to find a bottom around the next supports.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2753, 2488
Resistances: 3017, 3074

November 06, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - As we predicted yesterday, RIL fell 12%. We now need to watch if RIL will hold above its previous low or if it will break it. The previous low was 930.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1217, 930
Resistances: 1360-84, 1668

Infy - Infy was flat in a falling market yesterday. Infy did not go below the low of Tuesday. If Infy can move up today that will mean that Tuesday's low of 1285 will be the the new pivot.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1269, 1160
Resistances: 1336-41, 1450

November 05, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday, Nifty opened gap down but recovered to close the day strong. Asia is up this morning so we expect the Nifty will open up. The Nifty has a good chance to take out 3254 today. If it does then we could see the rally consolidate, then gain momentum and go all the way to 3800.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:3017, 2871
Resistances: 3254, 3519

November 05, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Two consecutive dojis in RIL! The stock is winding up for something big. We will watch closely to see if it will be on the upside or downside.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1368-80, 1293
Resistances: 1493, 1668

Infy - Infy fell sharply in yesterday's trading. It is now just below its 5-EMA. Infy needs to find a higher low to strengthen its uptrend. The previous low was 1160.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1269, 1160
Resistances: 1336-41, 1450

November 04, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday was another smart rally for the Nifty. Asia is a touch down this morning so we expect the Nifty will open flat. If the current rally is able to sustain above 3254, then we could see the rally gain momentum and go all the way to 3800.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:3017, 2871
Resistances: 3254, 3519

November 04, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - On Monday RIL continued its up move. It also broke the previous high of 1425. We need to see if the up move will strengthen or RIL will pull back.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1390, 1293
Resistances: 1668, 1792

Infy - Infy continued its up move on Monday, but was not able to significantly move above the previous high. For the trend to be strengthened Infy must now establish a higher low.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1339-42, 1160
Resistances: 1450, 1660

November 3, 2008, Single Stock

Nifty rallied smartly on Friday. Asia is up this morning so we expect the Nifty will open gap up. If the current rally is able to sustain above 3254, then we could see the rally gain momentum and go all the way to 3800.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2698, 2488-2500
Resistances: 3017, 3254

November 03, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - On Friday RIL continued its up move. However it was unable to break the previous high at 1425. For sustaining this up move and becoming an uptrend RIL has to break 1425.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1281, 1202
Resistances: 1407-1425, 1668

Infy - Infy continued its up move on Friday. Infy also broke the previous high at 1412. This indicates that Infy is in an uptrend.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1318-1339, 1160
Resistances: 1440-1450, 1660

Ocotber 31, 2008, Nifty

Nifty closed just above it 5-SMA on Wednesday. While this is a positive sign, Wednesday was also F&O expiry, so we will wait for today's price action before concluding. Asia is down this morning but we expect the Nifty will open gap up. If Nifty is able to hold above 2622 we could see the rally continue. If the Nifty falls we will be looking to see if new lows are made, or if the bottom is finally in place.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2622, 2488-2500
Resistances: 2753-2779, 2871

Ocotber 31, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - On Wednesday RIL continued its up move. However Wednesday was a doji candle. We will watch for reversal of this up move today. If RIL is able to hold above previous lows we could see a continuation of the up-move.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1149, 1113
Resistances: 1235, 1280-1300

Infy - Infy continued its up move on Wednesday. For a clear up trend to be established Infy needs to break 1412.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1284, 1160
Resistances: 1333, 1412

Ocotber 29, 2008, Nifty

Nifty was up sharply in yesterday's short trading session. US was up last night and Asia is up this morning. Nifty will open gap up. If Nifty is able to hold above 2684 we could see a rally for a couple of sessions.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2684, 2488-2500
Resistances: 2753-2779, 2871

Ocotber 29, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday RIL moved up sharply and was able to hold most of the gains till the end of trading. However since yesterday was a short trading session we will wait for today before we can confirm the end of RIL's down trend.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1117, 1020
Resistances: 1280-1300, 1425

Infy - Infy managed to stay above 1160 and closed just above its 5-EMA of 1273. For infy to continue the up move and establish an uptrend it needs to break 1412.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1273, 1160
Resistances: 1394-1412, 1608

October 28, 2008, Nifty

Due to various reasons, we could not post yesterday. Regrets for the inconvenience caused.
Yesterday Nifty rallied strongly form a low. This indicates that the panic in the market is near an end. The market is clearly oversold, and trend reversal signs can be seen. On analyzing the Elliot waves, 2200 is a strong support. If Nifty is able to hold above this we could see the bottom of the bear market. Muhurat trading should be positive today.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2252, 2200
Resistances: 2635, 2753-2779

October 28, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Due to various reasons we could not post yesterday. Yesterday RIL showed high volumes accompanied by a reversal signal. RIL is oversold, but is still making new lows everyday. So we will wait for a confirmation of the trend reversal.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1020, 930
Resistances: 1158, 1271

Infy - Infy broke 1190 yesterday, but recovered to close near its 5-EMA. If Infy is able to break its 5-EMA and hold above, it could sustain a recovery.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1160, 1040
Resistances: 1270, 1412

October 24, 2008, Nifty

Nifty rallied from a low but then fell back to make a new low yesterday. Asia is down, so Nifty should open gap down. The Nifty continues to be oversold.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2917, 2800
Resistances: 3092, 3248-54

October 24, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made new lows yesterday. If RIL holds above 1176, we could see a rally.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1176, 1020
Resistances: 1313, 1432

Infy - Infy went below is 5-Day EMA yesterday. We now need to see if 1190 holds.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1190, 1040
Resistances: 1283, 1412

October 23, 2008, Nifty

The Nifty fell sharply yesterday, killing the possibility of a rally. Asia is down, so Nifty should open gap down. The Nifty continues to be oversold, however there seems to be no rally coming. This is just strengthening the rally when it does occur. A smart recovery from today's lows might indicate the rally could happen.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3046, 2800
Resistances: 3248-54, 3342

October 23, 2008, Single stock

RIL - RIL was unable to sustain an up-move and closed at 1316 yesterday. We need to watch if RIL will make new lows or bounce from support of previous lows.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1281, 1176
Resistances: 1432, 1465

Infy - Infy failed to break 1412 and now the uptrend is in questions.
Trading strategy: Book profits in the long. Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1283, 1190
Resistances: 1302, 1412

October 22, 2008, Nifty

The Nifty moved above its 5-SMA yesterday. However this is not a reliable indicator in times of high volatility. Asia is down, so Nifty should open gap down. If the Nifty is able to close above 3175, we could see the rally continue.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3175, 3046
Resistances: 3248-54, 3342

October 22, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL closed above its 5-SMA yesterday. To sustain this up move RIL needs to close above 1355 today.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1355, 1281
Resistances: 1432, 1526

Infy - Infy continued its uptrend yesterday. A move above 1412 will be needed to confirm that the uptrend is still in place.
Trading strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1190.
Supports: 1303, 1190
Resistances: 1412, 1660

October 21, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday was an inside day on the Nifty. Another trend reversal sign. We have continuously been seeing trend reversal signs, but the Nifty is yet to bounce back. Asia is up, so Nifty should open gap up. If the Nifty is able to hold above 3200, this could be the beginning of a rally.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3046, 3000
Resistances: 3200, 3248


We predicted and tracked this October fall from September 26. We are now very close to the bottom. 3046 could be the bottom, though it needs to be tested. A strong up move by the Nifty over the next couple of days will confirm this.

October 21, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a doji yesterday indicating a trend reversal. Volumes in RIL have been increasing in the last few days. This supports the possibility of a trend reversal. However we will wait for confirmation today.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1281, 1176
Resistances: 1432, 1526

Infy - Infy is now clearly in an uptrend. We will follow it. A move above 1290 would strengthen the current up move.
Trading strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1190.
Supports: 1190, 1040
Resistances: 1290, 1412

October 20, 2008, Nifty

Asia is flat. We could have a muted opening. The Nifty has been oversold for the last few trading sessions, however we are yet to see a bounce back.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3000, 2800
Resistances:3300, 3348

October 20, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a new low on Friday, but recovered from the lows of the day. Volumes in RIL have increased in the last few days.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1248, 1176
Resistances: 1444-60, 1526

Infy - We hit our stop loss on Friday as Infy made a low of 1190. That is a good sign that Infy is holding up better that the rest of the market. A move above 1275 would strengthen the current upmove.
Trading strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1040.
Supports: 1100, 1040
Resistances: 1275, 1412

October 17, 2008, Nifty

Asia is up and US was up overnight. We should open gap up. The down move of yesterday was short lived with a smart recovery. We ended up with a hammer candle. Another trend reversal sign. For an up move to set in Nifty will have to close above 3404. If that happens Nifty could be winding up for a strong rally all the way to 3600.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3099, 2800
Resistances:3404, 3500

October 17, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a new low yesterday, but recovered from the lows of the day. A gap up opening today and an end in the green would indicate a reversal of the downtrend
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1350, 1325
Resistances: 1526,1668

Infy - Infy is is forming a second pivot after the trend reversal on October 10. Infy needs to break previous high of 1412 for this trend to continue.
Trading strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1200.
Supports: 1200, 1040
Resistances: 1310, 1412

October 16, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday Nifty went below its 5-SMA. Asia is down and US was hammered overnight. We should open gap down. Nifty needs to close above 3300 or we could be in for a prolonged down move.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3300, 3198
Resistances:3407, 3500

October 16, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL failed to break 1610 and the upmove is once again in question. We need to see if RIL bounces from previous lows or breaks this and continues to fall.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1477, 1350
Resistances: 1577,1689

Infy - Infy is closed near an important support of 1334. If infy is able to close to day above that support it is a good sign, else we could be in for some downside.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1334, 1121
Resistances: 1445, 1537

October 15, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday Nifty was unable to hold its gains in the opening and closed flat. Asia is down. Nifty will open gap down. If we close above 3451 we could see the Nifty consolidating, else we could see new lows.
Trading strategy: If Nifty closes below 3450 close longs.
Supports: 3451, 3248
Resistances:3500, 3693-3700

October 15, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL close near an important support/resistance of 1609. Yesterday was also a doji. Market is clearly undecided. For a RIL to continue an up move it have close above 1600.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1592, 1477
Resistances: 1610,1815

Infy - Infy seems to be developing a nice upmove starting from Friday. Let us see if this continues or is arrested. The next resistance is 1440, which Infy has to break to sustain the uptrend.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1333, 1121
Resistances: 1445, 1537

October 14, 2008, Nifty

US markets surged last night. Asia is up today. Nifty should open up today. Nifty is still oversold and will move up. For a sustained up move Nifty has to break and hold above 3500.
Trading strategy: Stay long with strict stop losses at supports.
Supports: 3473, 3248
Resistances:3500, 3693-3700

October 14, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday was an inside day for RIL. This is indicates a trend reversal.
Trading Strategy: If RIL holds above 1613, then go long.
Supports: 1477, 1350
Resistances: 1613,1815

Infy - Infy closed above its 5 EMA, to close at 1318. This is a good sign. Infy needs to move above 1440 to break its current downtrend.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1283-1300, 1121
Resistances: 1440, 1537

October 13, 2008, Nifty

Asia is up. Nifty should open gap up. There were reversal signals on Tuesday and Wednesday last week however Nifty continued to fall. Nifty is clearly oversold and is ready for a bounce. For a sustained up move Nifty has to break 3500.
Trading strategy: Go long with strict stop losses at supports.
Supports: 3248, 3198
Resistances:3486-3500, 3693-3700

October 13, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL has to break 1623 to be able to break the current downtrend. If that happens we can look for a recovery.
Trading Strategy: Close shorts. If RIL holds above 1623, then go long.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1623,1815

Infy - Infy did not break its support at 1121. This is a good sign. Infy needs to move above 1300 to break its current downtrend.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1121, 1000
Resistances: 1293-1300,1440

October 10, 2008, Nifty

US markets have been hammered overnight. We will open gap down. It is unlikely that 3350 will hold. But if it does we could see a rally.

Trading Strategy: Look for a bounce from supports or a break of supports.
Supports: 3555-3537, 3486
Resistances: 3745, 3823

We are 75% done with the October fall that we had predicted on September 26. It is not over yet but the end is in sight.

October 10, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - - RIL failed to break out of its down trend on Wednesday. The next support for RIL is 1350, at which point we would close our short and take our profit.
Trading Strategy: Stay Short with a strict stop loss at resistances. If RIL breaks 1682 and holds, then go long. Take profits at 1350.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1682,1815

Infy - Infy Coverage

Infosys - Starting coverage

IT has been hammered more than other sectors in the last few weeks. Infy will be declaring results tomorrow. So we though we will provide a technical perspective on Infy.

In the short term Infy is clearly in a downtrend (duh!). Hammer candle on October 8 indicates a possible reversal of this. To break the downtrend, Infy has to move above 1440. Infy has a strong support at 1121. Let us hope that is not broken.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1121, 1000
Resistances: 1326,1440

October 8, 2008, Nifty

Asian markets are down, we should open gap down. Yesterday was a doji candle on the nifty indicating a possible trend reversal. We will look for confirmation of that today.

Trading Strategy: Look for a bounce from supports or a break of supports.
Supports: 3555-3537, 3486
Resistances: 3745, 3823

October 8, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday was an inside day for RIL. This indicates a trend reversal. We will wait for confirmation of this.

Trading Strategy: Stay Short with a strict stop loss at resistances. If RIL breaks 1748 and holds, then go long.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1748,1815

October 7, 2008, Nifty

The Dow Jones was down 700 points at one point last night, but recovered to close at 9955 just below the 10000 mark. Asian markets are down today. Nifty will open gap down, but there is a strong possibility of a recovery during the day.

Trading Strategy: Look for a bounce from supports or a break of supports. 3555 will be an important number to watch towards the end of the day.
Supports: 3555, 3300
Resistances: 3774, 3823

October 7, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a year-low yesterday and closed at 1641. Technicals look quite ugly now.
Trading Strategy: Short with a strict stop loss at resistances.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1748,1815

October 6, 2008, Nifty

Asian markets are down. Nifty should open gap down. We need to see if it can bounce back from previous low of 3715. This seems unlikely. This time if we break 3790 and then 3715 we could see a large fall.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 3790, 3715
Resistances: 3853,

October 6, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke all its supports on Friday to close just below the previous low of 1765. To show a sign of recovery, RIL has to break 1827. However that seems unlikely.

Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1745, 1683
Resistances: 1827, 1888-1900,

October 3, 2008, Nifty

US markets have not closed yet but are down intra-day. Nifty should probably open gap down on Friday. If the Nifty closes above 3927 it is a good sign. Else we could be in for a prolonged down move.

Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 3927, 3861
Resistances: 3943, 4077

Oct 3, 2008 Single Stock

RIL On Wednesday, RIL failed to break its resistances and closed the day down two percent. Friday will be a crucial day. RIL has to break resistances or at least hold above the support of 1805.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1873, 1805
Resistances: 1938, 1996

October 1, 2008, Nifty

Nifty rallied more than 200 points from the day's low to close at 3921. Asia is up. We will open gap up. Nifty needs to hold above 3967 to sustain a rally.

Trading Strategy: Go long with strict stop losses.
Supports: 3919, 3861
Resistances: 3967, 4014

October 1, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- RIL did not make a new low yesterday. It showed strength although it did not bounce back as smartly as the rest of the market. In the medium term (weeks) RIL needs to break 2110 to start an uptrend.

Trading Strategy: Go long with a stop loss of 1800. Close positions at the end of the day since tomorrow is a holiday.
Supports: 1800, 1765
Resistances: 1968, 1998-2008

Nifty broke the support of 3790. We now need to see how much the nifty will fall and where it will take support for the next bounce back. US Markets have been hammered overnight. Nifty should open gap down.
We are already seeing the big fall we had predicted on September 26. However as we predicted at the end of this fall there will be a strong rally.

Trading Strategy: Those who had gone short on Friday and Monday have made huge profits. Stay short with a stop loss at 3880. Take your profits today do not wait for tomorrow.
Supports: 3617, 3555
Resistances: 388, 3982

September 30, 2008,Single Stock

RIL - RIL closed below its 5-SMA yesterday. We are looking for action on the downside. We need to see if RIL can hold above its crucial support of 1765.

Trading Strategy: Short with strict stop losses
Supports: 1800, 1765
Resistances: 1992-2000, 2070

September 29, 2008, Nifty

Asia is up a touch and oil is flat. We should open up. The Nifty needs to break 4096 to sustain an up move. We are again looking at 3790 to provide a bottom. If Nifty touches 3790 in this week, it will probably be broken.

Trading Strategy: Stay short with a stop loss at 4096
Supports: 3919, 3790
Resistances: 4000, 4096

September 29, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL fell more than 3% in Friday trading. We should see a bit of pull back today. RIL needs to break a resistance of 2015 to be able to sustain an up move.

Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1920, 1800
Resistances: 2000-2015, 2070

September 26, 2008, Nifty

As expected Nifty was volatile with a 130 point difference between high and low. Nifty went below its 5-SMA yesterday. We will wait for confirmation of that sell-signal today, since yesterday was expiry and so price action was not reliable. Also now Nifty is below 5-SMA which is below 20-SMA which is below 50-SMA. This indicates an extremely bearish mood in the market. October could see a major fall.
Asia flat, and so is oil. We should have a muted opening.

Trading Strategy: Go short with a stop loss at 4180
Supports:4051, 3919
Resistances: 4160-80, 4260-70

September 26, 2008, Single Stock

RIL RIL closed down 1% yesterday. Expiry was not as bad as we expected. In the medium term RIL needs to break 2126 on the upside for a sustained
rally. On the downside we have support at the recent lows of 1765.

Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 2029, 1990
Resistances: 2045, 2126

September 25, 2008, Nifty

Today is options expiry. At yesterday's close September contract was quoting at almost 30 point premium to the spot. We can expect some volatility today!
Asia is down and so is Oil. We may open flat.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 4110, 4051
Resistances: 4178-89, 4268

September 25, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- RIL was up almost 2% yesterday. But it could not break the resistance between 2050-2070. It closed just below its 20-SMA. RIL has not yet established any intermediate trends. The next few days will be crucial to establishing a clear trend in either direction.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Expiry is today so there will be wild swings. Keep strict stops losses.
Supports: 2000-2037, 1920
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2126-2146

September 24, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday, Nifty closed near its day-low and just below its 5-SMA. Asia is down and so is Oil. We should open flat or a touch down. We are looking for a positive break out at 4158. On the downside we see strong support at 4051
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions
Supports: 4110, 4051
Resistances: 4158-78, 4268

Sep 24, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL is now below its 5-SMA. It closed near its low yesterday and did not bounce back from any of its supports. We need to see if it is able to close above 2000 today.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions as expiry is tomorrow. Keep strict stops losses.
Supports: 2000, 1920
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2146

September 23, 2008, Nifty

The Nifty broke our support of 4214 yesterday. Asia is down, Oil is up sharply. We could see Nifty open down and come under pressure throughout the day. 4200 will probably be broken in the opening. The next support for Nifty is at 4130.

Trading Strategy: Play for resistances/supports break outs and bounces.We are near expiry, avoid positional (overnight) trades and keep strict stops.
Supports: 4201, 4130
Resistances: 4224, 4289-4305

September 23, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Except for a a short period after opening, RIL failed to show a strong move above the resistances. RIL will be down today, but we need to see if it can take support from 5-SMA at 1975 and bounce back from there.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions
Supports: 1975, 1920
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2146

September 22, 2008, Nifty

The downtrend that started on 8 September was broken with Friday's move. Nifty has broken its 5-SMA and is close to 20, 50 SMA. If these are also broken we could see a strong rally for the Nifty.
Asia is up, but so is oil. We could open up a little and then pull back later.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistances/supports break outs and bounces. If 4300 is taken out then go long.
Supports: 4214, 4123
Resistances: 4289-4305, 4398

September 22, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL is now above is 5-SMA, but this is not a reliable signal in itself. We would like to wait for the uptrend to be established before taking a long position.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions.
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2146
Supports: 1920, 1765

September 19,2008, Nifty

3790 saved the day and we rallied smartly from there. Yesterday was a classic hammer candle, which jumped from a support. This is a strong buy signal. Asia is up, Oil is flat. We should open up a touch.
Trading Strategy: If you had gone long today, wait and watch to book profits. If nifty does not open gap up, go long.
Supports:3900-3919,3799
Resistances: 4085, 4123.
Long term view(3-6 months): We have rallied yesterday and probably will today. We are not done with this down move yet. If 3790 holds over the next few weeks, the bottom will be in place. Gradually start building long term investments as we are reaching the end of the bear phase. There could still be a couple of falls over the next few weeks, but it will be difficult to exactly time the end of the bear phase.

September 19, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- We saw a strong rally from yesterday's lows to end the day up 3.3%. Volumes were also high. RIL closed above its resistance zone. We should be in for a good day today as well.
Trading Strategy: If you had taken long position at yesterday's close, book your profits today. Else look for break or support, failure to break resistances.
Supports: 1900-1910, 1800
Resistances: 1998, 2080

September 18. 2008, Nifty

Asia is being hammered. US markets crashed overnight. Oil is up. We will open gap down. The action will be on the downside. We are looking to see if 3790 holds.
Trading Strategy: If we do not open gap down go short. Else wait for break of supports to short.
Supports: 3919, 3790
Resistances: 4091-4100, 4176

September 18, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke the resistance in the opening but did not hold above it, for long. We still had a higher high and a lower low than Tuesday. This could be the beginning of a new uptrend. However we need to wait and watch for confirmation.
Trading Strategy: Wait and watch. Close open long positions. Play for positive or negative break outs of resistances and supports.
Supports: 1800, 1768
Resistances: 1906-1935, 2020

September 17, 2008, Nifty

Nifty recovered from yesterday's lows and closed near its opening - A sign that this fall might be ending. Asia is up, oil is at 94. We will see a bounce back for the Nifty. However we need to look for a signal which will confirm that this bounce will last, till then stay ready to hit stop losses, or if you want to be safe, avoid taking a position.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at supports.
Supports: 3919, 3790
Resistances: 4091, 4167

September 17, 2008, Single Stock

RIL -We are looking at a very strong buy signal in RIL . A doji on Monday, followed by a fully engulfing green candle yesterday. There is a strong resistance at 1930-40. That should be taken out in the opening. If it is, we will now take a risk and go long on RIL.
Trading Strategy: Go long if 1940 is broken, with strict stop losses at supports
Supports: 1800, 1768
Resistances: 1930-40 , 2020

September 16, 2008, Nifty

We were safe in waiting for which side the break out would happen. We lost out on a money making opportunity but we saved our capital. Asia is down and so is oil. We should open down a little. The big number to look for is 3790. Will Nifty hold previous lows and confirm that the bottom is forming or will it fall through again.

Trading strategy: If we do not open gap down go short, else look for break/bounce from supports.
Supports: 3848, 3790
Resistances: 4118, 4145

Long Term(months):From a look at this year's charts we are in the third big move down. This should be the last big down move for this year. From the low point of the end of this move we should start going up. Wait for the end of this move and then take long positions with a time-horizon of 3-6 months.

September 16, 2008, Single Stock

RIL: RIL broke all supports yesterday (as did everything else in the market). However an interesting aspect is that RIL did not fall as much as the rest of the market. We should start looking for a bottom for reliance. We need to confirm if RIL will take support at 1768/1683.
Trading Strategy: Go short with strict stop losses. Watch for a bounce at supports and switch positions if that happens.
Supports: 1768, 1683
Resistances: 2095, 2171

September 15, 2008, Nifty

Nifty finished last week deep in the red. US futures have been hammered this morning. Oil is down. We should probably open down a bit. 4159 is now a key support point which has to hold if the Nifty is to bounce back.

Trading Strategy: Look for a break of 4159 or a bounce back from there.
Supports: 4159, 3790
Resistances: 4284, 4336-4350

September 15, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL closed near the 1920 support we had given. The next support is at 1812. We feel that RIL could be in for a prolonged down move if it does not bounce back today.
Trading Strategy: Go short if 1920 support is broken. Else go long with a strict stop loss at 1920
Supports: 1920, 1812
Resistances: 2027-2039, 2094-2100

Weekly Review, Week ended September 12, 2008

RIL - Last week RIL broke most supports and closed the week at 1919.7, dangerously close to its year low of 1920. We now see an inflection point for RIL. It will either take support from this point and bounce up, or it will fall through the bottom. The volumes in the last few days has been extremely high,and RIL is now in the oversold region. We feel there is greater chance of a bounce, rather than a fall through the bottom. However we will look for confirmation this week.

Nifty - We were a little surprised by the sharp upmove at the beginning of last week and hit our stops on Tuesday/Wednesday. However near perfect call on Thursday and good trading on Friday meant that we ended the week in the green. Nifty is now close to its next support of 4159. Should this hold we could see a rally, else we may go all the way down to 3800. The news from the weekly charts is not good. Two weeks back we had a doji, and since last week we have seen a negative break out. However we are close to strong supports so wait for confirmation.

September 12, 2008, Nifty

With yesterday's move the short term uptrend that started on 21 August is now over. Nifty close was near our support of 4292. Oil is down, Asia is up, we should up today. Look for 4214 as the next support. If that is not broken we could see a bounce back.
Trading Strategy: With our near perfect call yesterday we have recovered our losses of Tuesday and are now in the green for the week. Book profits in your shorts. Wait and watch.
Supports: 4214,4259
Resistances: 4296, 4360-4371

September 12, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- Not only did RIL fall 4% yesterday, volumes were also quite high. Technicals continue to be weak, though we could see a minor pull back today. The next support for RIL is at its 52-week low of 1920. If that also breaks, we could see a prolonged downside move in RIL.
Trading Strategy: We hope you made good profits yesterday. If you did not book your profits on your short yesterday, the do so today. Wait and watch. 1920 is an important support.
Supports: 1920, 1812
Resistances: 2074-2089, 2165-2179

September 11, 2008, Nifty

Nifty closed at 4400 yesterday. Nifty broke both resistances we gave yesterday, however it did not break a strong resistance at 4380-85. We will need to see if this holds today. If not, we could see a big fall all the way to 4300. Asian markets are down a bit and oil is flat. We will have a muted opening.
Trading Strategy: Wait to see if 4380 is broken. If it is then go short with a stop loss at 4426.
Supports:4380-4385, 4292
Resistances: 4426 (strong), 4482

September 11, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke the support of 2128 yesterday, however it held above the second support of 2065. RIL is now below 5-SMA. We now expect a break out on the downside.
Trading Strategy: If you had gone short yesterday, watch for the break out. Keep a stop loss at resistances. If you have not gone short, short today with strict stop losses.
Supports:2052-2065, 1920
Resistances: 2110, 2175-2182

September 10, 2008, Nifty

Nifty was marginally down yesterday. We see strength in the fact that there was no major pullback after such a smart rally on Monday. Yesterday's candle was fully engulfed by Monday's candle. This indicates the end of a trend. We expect a break out on the positive or negative side soon. We see a greater chance of a break out on the positive side, however wait for confirmation before trading.
Oil is down and so is Asia. We will probably open slightly down.
Trading:Based on yesterday's trading advice you might be long today. Wait to see if supports are broken, before booking the loss.
Supports: 4438, 4391
Resistances: 4522-4539, 4649

September 10,2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL did not break out of its resistance barrier yesterday. Yesterday was also a doji candle for RIL. We are now expecting a break-out on up or downside.
Trading Strategy: Watch for break of supports/resistances and then take a position with strict stop losses. Take profits quickly as we expect market to be volatile.
Supports: 2127, 2065
Resistances: 2161,2203

September 9, 2008, Nifty

Nifty rallied smartly yesterday. We did not expect such a strong move. Nifty is now above its 5 SMA and also 5 SMA has gone above 20 SMA. These are both buy signals, but we would like to ignore moving averages, when there are sharp moves. We are seeing an uptrend set in and would like to see if that can be confirmed today. Asia is down, but so is oil. We expect a minor pull back today.
Trading strategy: If nifty goes below 4440 go short. Close position and go long at end of day if nifty is above 4450.
Supports: 4440-47, 4399
Resistances: 4533-4558, 4649

September 9, 2008, Single Stocks

RIL- RIL opened gap up like rest of the market, but failed to break out of the resistance zone. We will not see a sustained upmove in RIL till it closes strongly above the resistance. There could be a pull back today after yesterday's rally.
Trading Strategy: Look for break outs at supports/resistances to make small profits. Do not take large positions
Supports: 2065-2080, 1920
Resistances: 2144, 2220

Weekly review, week ended September 5, 2008

Last week with 4 days of trading was quite volatile, we made good calls through the week and an excellent trading on Tuesday made the week as a whole hugely profitable. On the weekly chart last week was a doji, indicating indecision. The week ahead has started off with a bang today, though it looks like it will be short-lived. Looking back we should have expected the sharp moves today.
We also started covering RIL. So far we have not had any conviction trading calls on RIL, though we expect this to change once we get more familiar with the stock.
Looking ahead we expect the volatility to die down by the end of the week and a clear uptrend to be established.

September 8,2008 - Nifty

Nifty fell as we predicted on Friday, however most of the move was in the opening so there was not much trading opportunity. Nifty did not break a support at 4319. Asian markets are up, but oil is down. We could open a gap up. If we hold above 4413 then take a long position. A close above 4413 would also mean that the 5-day SMA will go above the 20-day SMA. This is a strong buy signal.
Trading Strategy: Close open shorts, Take a long position if nifty holds above 4413.
Supports:4300-4306, 4267
Resistances: 4400-4413, 4447

September 8, 2008 - RIL

RIL did not break the support at 2052. Which means that the uptrend that began on 28th August is still intact. We can hope for a bounce back from here. However there is a strong resistance zone from 2128-2145.
Trading Strategy: Close any open shorts, if possible take a long position with strict stop losses.
Supports: 2052, 1920
Resistances: 2128-2145, 2183

September 5, 2008

Market: Nifty broke the first resistance given yesterday, but held above the 4419 mark which we had specified as the second resistance. Nifty closed just above the support at 4446. Nifty looks like it will break a few more supports today, but look for a bounce back. Last night was bad in the US, Asia is down and oil is flat. We will open gap down.
Single Stocks: Right now we only cover RIL. RIL failed to break out of its resistance zone yesterday. It is looking quite weak technically.
Trading Strategy Nifty: If you did not short yesterday, take a short position today with strict stop losses. If nifty closes above 4410 then go long.
Supports: Nifty- 4404-4416, 4372
Resistances: Nifty - 4543, 4649
Trading Strategy Single Stocks: Short RIL with strict stop loss at resistances.
Supports: RIL - 2099, 2052
Resistances: 2161, 2222

September 4, 2008

Nifty rallied more than 3% on Tuesday. Those who took my advice and went long made huge amounts of money.
The downtrend has clearly been broken, however to establish a clear uptrend is going to be difficult for the nifty after such a strong rally in a single day. We need to see more sustained moves before we can be sure. Till then play for small gains and keep strict stop losses. Asian markets are down and oil is up. We should open a touch down.
Trading Strategy: Look to see if supports hold, if they do not then go short with a strict stop loss.
Supports: 4446, 4419
Resistances: 4544, 4649,

Happy Ganesh Chaturti to RIL - September 4, 2008

To celebrate Ganesh Chaturti (and our great call on September 2) we are beginning our analysis of individual stocks. The choice of the first stock is a no-brainer. It has to be RIL, with approx 11% weightage in the Nifty, it is surely everyone's favourite. (Forgive my graph, i am stuck to copying and pasting graphs from my excel worksheet. Hopefully i will make enough money to buy cool software, but till then...)

While it is quite likely that the technicals for RIL and the Nifty will be similar, we hope that we will be able to identity price action signals specific to RIL. Here goes.

RIL closed at 2212 on Tuesday. This is just short of 2215 which is the beginning of a major resistance zone. Reliance like the rest of the market has broken the intermediate downtrend, however the sharp up-move on Tuesday means that sustaining an uptrend is going to be difficult. Reliance will need to break out of the current resistance barrier to mover higher.

Trading Strategy: Stay Nuetral. If the stock breaks resitance zone, then take a long with strict stop loss at the resistance.

Supports: 2163, 2099

Resistances: 2215-2245, 2300

September 2, 2008

Yesterday was another doji, indicating indecision in the market. We expect a break out on the positive side. If nifty breaks out above 4370 this will mean that the down trend is over. However we still need to see if an uptrend will be established or if the market will move sideways from here on. Oil is down to 111.15 and Asian markets are up. We should open in the green.

Trading strategy: If you did not go long yesterday, then take a long position today with stop loss at the supports. Also since tomorrow is a holiday, consider closing positions at today's close.
Supports: 4280-4300, 4255
Resistances: 4365, 4404

Weekly Review - Week ended August 29, 2008

The week started started indecisively. We could not draw any strong signals from price action. However the supports and resistances calculated were good and gave small profit making opportunities.
Towards the end of the week a clearer picture emerged and we made a killing on the 28th and 29th with near perfect calls.
In the coming week (Starting September 1) we are looking for signals of an end to the intermediate down trend and possibly the establishment of an intermediate uptrend.

September 1, 2008

On Friday, Nifty went up almost 150 points. With this intermediate downtrend (which began on August 12) has been challenged but not fully broken. For investors watch the next day or two before going long. For traders we need to look for signals which will confirm the end of the downtrend and the starting of an uptrend. Asian markets are weak we should open down.

Trading Strategy: After the opening see if the Nifty holds above supports. If it does then go long.
Supports: 4300-4310, 4253
Resistances: 4364, 4425-4434

August 29, 2008

Nifty fell sharply yesterday after breaking the support zone. While technically nifty is quite weak, we would not want to read too much into yesterday's price action as it was f&o expiry, and in my experience signals from such days are best ignored. Global cues are strong. Asia is up and oil is flat. We should open up.
Trading strategy: If you are still short, stop loss at the resistances. Else look to initiate long positions in case of a strong positive break out.
Supports: 4159, 3848
Resistances: 4255, 4290-4310

August 28,2008

Nifty swung a little in the opening trades yesterday, but then fell sharply once it broke the support at 4320. At first sight it looks like we have a break out on the down side. However we have a strong support zone from 4248-65. Nifty could rebound from there. If it does not then one can continue to stay short. Asian markets are mixed, oil is up. We could open down a little.
*Trading Strategy: Continue to stay short with stop loss at resistances.
Supports: 4248-65, 4159
Resistances: 4325, 4400


*Today is expiry day. Be careful!

August 27, 2008

We have been in a down trend so far, but markets have been showing indecision for the last couple of days. Yesterday was a clear doji candlestick. We can expect a break out(on upside or downside) soon. Asian markets are mixed and oil is up. We should have a muted opening, with no strong move either way. Watch for the break out at support/resistance.

Trading Strategy: Wait for a break out on either side and then take positions. Also be aware that expiry is tomorrow and market could swing a lot.
Supports:4320, 4260
Resistances: 4340, 4400

August 26, 2008

Yesterday the Nifty could not break the resistance at 4400 and could not even hold above 4350. Nifty also closed a little below its 5 day moving average. Global cues are weak and Asian markets are down this morning. We should open gap down. Watch for a break out above 4350.

Trading Strategy: Short nifty with stop loss at 4350.
Supports: 4300, 4274
Resistances: 4340-4350, 4400-4420

August 25, 2008

We missed the upmove on Friday. The nifty touch and intraday low of 4248, but then rebounded from there. It seems to have taken support from the 50-day moving average. We are positive on the nifty above 4350. Else we feel this rebound could be short lived.
Asian markets are up and oil is down. We should have a good opening.

Trading Strategy: Long on the nifty if it moves strongly above 4350. Else stay neutral.
Supports: 4275, 4159
Resistances: 4350, 4400-4420

Weekly Review - Week ended August 22, 2008

We started shorting the nifty from around 4497. Shorted well through the week, however on Friday we missed the upmove and hit our stop loss... Still, the week overall was profitable.
The nifty looks to be staging a recovery from 4248. We would like to see if this is just a temporary resistance or if we are indeed forming a bottom. The number to watch is the previous low of 4159.
India Vix is at 35, not as bad as last month but still quite high. As we head into expiry on Thursday, markets could swing wildly.

August 22,2008

The downtrend that started on 11 August seems to be continuing after consolidating on Wednesday.
Where will the nifty find support to bounce back?
Most of the supports were broken yesterday. 4280 is the 50 day moving average, though it is unlikely to hold. Next support is at 4159.
Oil is at 121.4 and inflation came in at 12.63% yesterday. Looks like it will be a bad day for the nifty.
Trading strategy: Those who took short positions yesterday will have made good profits. Even for those who shorted at the end of the day, profits will be there today. Book profits today as we are heading into a weekend, though we are still negative on the nifty.
Supports: 4280 (unlikely), 4159
Resistances: 4360, 4418

August 21, 2008

Nifty touched 4430 a couple of times yesterday but was not able to break out. Markets are between significant technical levels. The 5 day average has gone below the 20 day average. This is a negative signal. Candlesticks however seem to confirm the hammer of August 19, indicating an upmove. Asian markets are weak this morning and crude is near 117. We should probably open down.

Trading strategy: Close any open positions. Stay neutral till end of day. If market is below 4400 then short. If market is above 4430 then long
Supports: 4400-4410, 4316
Resistances: 4430, 4482

August 20, 2008

Yesterday was a hammer candle albeit a red one. This indicates a possible reversal in the downtrend that started on the 12th of August. Moving averages however are still negative. We remain with a negative view on the nifty but would like to book profits/maintain strict stop losses. Asian markets are flat this morning and crude is at 115. No real cues.

Trading Strategy: Book profits in any open short positions if such chances come during the day. Close shorts if nifty goes above 4430
Supports: 4346, 4290
Resistances: 4395, 4430

August 19, 2008

As we predicted, yesterday the nifty broke the support of 4400. However nifty did not go much below that. The nifty is now below its 20-day moving average. While we are still negative on the nifty, the strength of the support and the fact that nifty has not fallen after breaking the support, means that we could see a pull back from here. Oil is at 112.25 but asian markets are weak. We might see a gap up opening with market coming down later in the day.

Trading strategy: (Assuming you already went short yesterday). Wait till the end of the day. If nifty closes above 4425 then close the short (and book losses). Else continue to stay short. During day stop loss should be 4453.

Supports: 4346, 4289

Resistances: 4420-4425, 4453

August 18, 2008

As we predicted nifty lost almost hundred points on August 14. Asian markets are up this morning. However oil is back up at 114.60 after falling to less than 112 last week. We don't have a conclusive take on the opening. Today will also be market's first reaction to 12.44% inflation data released on Thursday.

Trading Strategy: The next support for the nifty is 4400-4410. This is a strong support. If this does not hold consider shorting. Stop loss should be 4474.

Supports: 4400-4410, 4346

Resistances: 4474,4533

August 14 2008

Yesterday nifty close was just above our support of 4533. The final adjusted close was 4529. The Nifty went below its 5-day moving average. This reinforces our negative view. Asian markets a slightly down this morning but oil is close to 117 so we may have a gap down opening.

Trading Strategy: Continue to stay short. Consider booking profits at the end of the day as we are going into a long weekend.
Resistances: 4557-4559, 4649
Support: 4461-4464, 4390-4400

August 13 2008 - First Post

Hi all. This is my first post. I will be doing some technical analysis of the NSE nifty for a start and later might add individual stocks.
Today's Analysis
August 12 red candle almost fully encloses August 11 green candle. This indicates a reversal in the intermediate up trend which started on 16 July
Global ques are weak this morning.

Trading strategy: Short nifty with strict stop losses at the resistances

Resistances: 4649, 4679
Support: 4533, 4464