August 29, 2008

Nifty fell sharply yesterday after breaking the support zone. While technically nifty is quite weak, we would not want to read too much into yesterday's price action as it was f&o expiry, and in my experience signals from such days are best ignored. Global cues are strong. Asia is up and oil is flat. We should open up.
Trading strategy: If you are still short, stop loss at the resistances. Else look to initiate long positions in case of a strong positive break out.
Supports: 4159, 3848
Resistances: 4255, 4290-4310

August 28,2008

Nifty swung a little in the opening trades yesterday, but then fell sharply once it broke the support at 4320. At first sight it looks like we have a break out on the down side. However we have a strong support zone from 4248-65. Nifty could rebound from there. If it does not then one can continue to stay short. Asian markets are mixed, oil is up. We could open down a little.
*Trading Strategy: Continue to stay short with stop loss at resistances.
Supports: 4248-65, 4159
Resistances: 4325, 4400


*Today is expiry day. Be careful!

August 27, 2008

We have been in a down trend so far, but markets have been showing indecision for the last couple of days. Yesterday was a clear doji candlestick. We can expect a break out(on upside or downside) soon. Asian markets are mixed and oil is up. We should have a muted opening, with no strong move either way. Watch for the break out at support/resistance.

Trading Strategy: Wait for a break out on either side and then take positions. Also be aware that expiry is tomorrow and market could swing a lot.
Supports:4320, 4260
Resistances: 4340, 4400

August 26, 2008

Yesterday the Nifty could not break the resistance at 4400 and could not even hold above 4350. Nifty also closed a little below its 5 day moving average. Global cues are weak and Asian markets are down this morning. We should open gap down. Watch for a break out above 4350.

Trading Strategy: Short nifty with stop loss at 4350.
Supports: 4300, 4274
Resistances: 4340-4350, 4400-4420

August 25, 2008

We missed the upmove on Friday. The nifty touch and intraday low of 4248, but then rebounded from there. It seems to have taken support from the 50-day moving average. We are positive on the nifty above 4350. Else we feel this rebound could be short lived.
Asian markets are up and oil is down. We should have a good opening.

Trading Strategy: Long on the nifty if it moves strongly above 4350. Else stay neutral.
Supports: 4275, 4159
Resistances: 4350, 4400-4420

Weekly Review - Week ended August 22, 2008

We started shorting the nifty from around 4497. Shorted well through the week, however on Friday we missed the upmove and hit our stop loss... Still, the week overall was profitable.
The nifty looks to be staging a recovery from 4248. We would like to see if this is just a temporary resistance or if we are indeed forming a bottom. The number to watch is the previous low of 4159.
India Vix is at 35, not as bad as last month but still quite high. As we head into expiry on Thursday, markets could swing wildly.

August 22,2008

The downtrend that started on 11 August seems to be continuing after consolidating on Wednesday.
Where will the nifty find support to bounce back?
Most of the supports were broken yesterday. 4280 is the 50 day moving average, though it is unlikely to hold. Next support is at 4159.
Oil is at 121.4 and inflation came in at 12.63% yesterday. Looks like it will be a bad day for the nifty.
Trading strategy: Those who took short positions yesterday will have made good profits. Even for those who shorted at the end of the day, profits will be there today. Book profits today as we are heading into a weekend, though we are still negative on the nifty.
Supports: 4280 (unlikely), 4159
Resistances: 4360, 4418

August 21, 2008

Nifty touched 4430 a couple of times yesterday but was not able to break out. Markets are between significant technical levels. The 5 day average has gone below the 20 day average. This is a negative signal. Candlesticks however seem to confirm the hammer of August 19, indicating an upmove. Asian markets are weak this morning and crude is near 117. We should probably open down.

Trading strategy: Close any open positions. Stay neutral till end of day. If market is below 4400 then short. If market is above 4430 then long
Supports: 4400-4410, 4316
Resistances: 4430, 4482

August 20, 2008

Yesterday was a hammer candle albeit a red one. This indicates a possible reversal in the downtrend that started on the 12th of August. Moving averages however are still negative. We remain with a negative view on the nifty but would like to book profits/maintain strict stop losses. Asian markets are flat this morning and crude is at 115. No real cues.

Trading Strategy: Book profits in any open short positions if such chances come during the day. Close shorts if nifty goes above 4430
Supports: 4346, 4290
Resistances: 4395, 4430

August 19, 2008

As we predicted, yesterday the nifty broke the support of 4400. However nifty did not go much below that. The nifty is now below its 20-day moving average. While we are still negative on the nifty, the strength of the support and the fact that nifty has not fallen after breaking the support, means that we could see a pull back from here. Oil is at 112.25 but asian markets are weak. We might see a gap up opening with market coming down later in the day.

Trading strategy: (Assuming you already went short yesterday). Wait till the end of the day. If nifty closes above 4425 then close the short (and book losses). Else continue to stay short. During day stop loss should be 4453.

Supports: 4346, 4289

Resistances: 4420-4425, 4453

August 18, 2008

As we predicted nifty lost almost hundred points on August 14. Asian markets are up this morning. However oil is back up at 114.60 after falling to less than 112 last week. We don't have a conclusive take on the opening. Today will also be market's first reaction to 12.44% inflation data released on Thursday.

Trading Strategy: The next support for the nifty is 4400-4410. This is a strong support. If this does not hold consider shorting. Stop loss should be 4474.

Supports: 4400-4410, 4346

Resistances: 4474,4533

August 14 2008

Yesterday nifty close was just above our support of 4533. The final adjusted close was 4529. The Nifty went below its 5-day moving average. This reinforces our negative view. Asian markets a slightly down this morning but oil is close to 117 so we may have a gap down opening.

Trading Strategy: Continue to stay short. Consider booking profits at the end of the day as we are going into a long weekend.
Resistances: 4557-4559, 4649
Support: 4461-4464, 4390-4400

August 13 2008 - First Post

Hi all. This is my first post. I will be doing some technical analysis of the NSE nifty for a start and later might add individual stocks.
Today's Analysis
August 12 red candle almost fully encloses August 11 green candle. This indicates a reversal in the intermediate up trend which started on 16 July
Global ques are weak this morning.

Trading strategy: Short nifty with strict stop losses at the resistances

Resistances: 4649, 4679
Support: 4533, 4464