Ocotber 31, 2008, Nifty

Nifty closed just above it 5-SMA on Wednesday. While this is a positive sign, Wednesday was also F&O expiry, so we will wait for today's price action before concluding. Asia is down this morning but we expect the Nifty will open gap up. If Nifty is able to hold above 2622 we could see the rally continue. If the Nifty falls we will be looking to see if new lows are made, or if the bottom is finally in place.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2622, 2488-2500
Resistances: 2753-2779, 2871

Ocotber 31, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - On Wednesday RIL continued its up move. However Wednesday was a doji candle. We will watch for reversal of this up move today. If RIL is able to hold above previous lows we could see a continuation of the up-move.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1149, 1113
Resistances: 1235, 1280-1300

Infy - Infy continued its up move on Wednesday. For a clear up trend to be established Infy needs to break 1412.
Trading Strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1284, 1160
Resistances: 1333, 1412

Ocotber 29, 2008, Nifty

Nifty was up sharply in yesterday's short trading session. US was up last night and Asia is up this morning. Nifty will open gap up. If Nifty is able to hold above 2684 we could see a rally for a couple of sessions.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2684, 2488-2500
Resistances: 2753-2779, 2871

Ocotber 29, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday RIL moved up sharply and was able to hold most of the gains till the end of trading. However since yesterday was a short trading session we will wait for today before we can confirm the end of RIL's down trend.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1117, 1020
Resistances: 1280-1300, 1425

Infy - Infy managed to stay above 1160 and closed just above its 5-EMA of 1273. For infy to continue the up move and establish an uptrend it needs to break 1412.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1160
Supports: 1273, 1160
Resistances: 1394-1412, 1608

October 28, 2008, Nifty

Due to various reasons, we could not post yesterday. Regrets for the inconvenience caused.
Yesterday Nifty rallied strongly form a low. This indicates that the panic in the market is near an end. The market is clearly oversold, and trend reversal signs can be seen. On analyzing the Elliot waves, 2200 is a strong support. If Nifty is able to hold above this we could see the bottom of the bear market. Muhurat trading should be positive today.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2252, 2200
Resistances: 2635, 2753-2779

October 28, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Due to various reasons we could not post yesterday. Yesterday RIL showed high volumes accompanied by a reversal signal. RIL is oversold, but is still making new lows everyday. So we will wait for a confirmation of the trend reversal.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1020, 930
Resistances: 1158, 1271

Infy - Infy broke 1190 yesterday, but recovered to close near its 5-EMA. If Infy is able to break its 5-EMA and hold above, it could sustain a recovery.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1160, 1040
Resistances: 1270, 1412

October 24, 2008, Nifty

Nifty rallied from a low but then fell back to make a new low yesterday. Asia is down, so Nifty should open gap down. The Nifty continues to be oversold.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports:2917, 2800
Resistances: 3092, 3248-54

October 24, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made new lows yesterday. If RIL holds above 1176, we could see a rally.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1176, 1020
Resistances: 1313, 1432

Infy - Infy went below is 5-Day EMA yesterday. We now need to see if 1190 holds.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1190, 1040
Resistances: 1283, 1412

October 23, 2008, Nifty

The Nifty fell sharply yesterday, killing the possibility of a rally. Asia is down, so Nifty should open gap down. The Nifty continues to be oversold, however there seems to be no rally coming. This is just strengthening the rally when it does occur. A smart recovery from today's lows might indicate the rally could happen.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3046, 2800
Resistances: 3248-54, 3342

October 23, 2008, Single stock

RIL - RIL was unable to sustain an up-move and closed at 1316 yesterday. We need to watch if RIL will make new lows or bounce from support of previous lows.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1281, 1176
Resistances: 1432, 1465

Infy - Infy failed to break 1412 and now the uptrend is in questions.
Trading strategy: Book profits in the long. Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1283, 1190
Resistances: 1302, 1412

October 22, 2008, Nifty

The Nifty moved above its 5-SMA yesterday. However this is not a reliable indicator in times of high volatility. Asia is down, so Nifty should open gap down. If the Nifty is able to close above 3175, we could see the rally continue.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3175, 3046
Resistances: 3248-54, 3342

October 22, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL closed above its 5-SMA yesterday. To sustain this up move RIL needs to close above 1355 today.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1355, 1281
Resistances: 1432, 1526

Infy - Infy continued its uptrend yesterday. A move above 1412 will be needed to confirm that the uptrend is still in place.
Trading strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1190.
Supports: 1303, 1190
Resistances: 1412, 1660

October 21, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday was an inside day on the Nifty. Another trend reversal sign. We have continuously been seeing trend reversal signs, but the Nifty is yet to bounce back. Asia is up, so Nifty should open gap up. If the Nifty is able to hold above 3200, this could be the beginning of a rally.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3046, 3000
Resistances: 3200, 3248


We predicted and tracked this October fall from September 26. We are now very close to the bottom. 3046 could be the bottom, though it needs to be tested. A strong up move by the Nifty over the next couple of days will confirm this.

October 21, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a doji yesterday indicating a trend reversal. Volumes in RIL have been increasing in the last few days. This supports the possibility of a trend reversal. However we will wait for confirmation today.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1281, 1176
Resistances: 1432, 1526

Infy - Infy is now clearly in an uptrend. We will follow it. A move above 1290 would strengthen the current up move.
Trading strategy: Stay long with stop loss at 1190.
Supports: 1190, 1040
Resistances: 1290, 1412

October 20, 2008, Nifty

Asia is flat. We could have a muted opening. The Nifty has been oversold for the last few trading sessions, however we are yet to see a bounce back.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3000, 2800
Resistances:3300, 3348

October 20, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a new low on Friday, but recovered from the lows of the day. Volumes in RIL have increased in the last few days.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1248, 1176
Resistances: 1444-60, 1526

Infy - We hit our stop loss on Friday as Infy made a low of 1190. That is a good sign that Infy is holding up better that the rest of the market. A move above 1275 would strengthen the current upmove.
Trading strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1040.
Supports: 1100, 1040
Resistances: 1275, 1412

October 17, 2008, Nifty

Asia is up and US was up overnight. We should open gap up. The down move of yesterday was short lived with a smart recovery. We ended up with a hammer candle. Another trend reversal sign. For an up move to set in Nifty will have to close above 3404. If that happens Nifty could be winding up for a strong rally all the way to 3600.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3099, 2800
Resistances:3404, 3500

October 17, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a new low yesterday, but recovered from the lows of the day. A gap up opening today and an end in the green would indicate a reversal of the downtrend
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1350, 1325
Resistances: 1526,1668

Infy - Infy is is forming a second pivot after the trend reversal on October 10. Infy needs to break previous high of 1412 for this trend to continue.
Trading strategy: Go long with stop loss at 1200.
Supports: 1200, 1040
Resistances: 1310, 1412

October 16, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday Nifty went below its 5-SMA. Asia is down and US was hammered overnight. We should open gap down. Nifty needs to close above 3300 or we could be in for a prolonged down move.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces
Supports: 3300, 3198
Resistances:3407, 3500

October 16, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL failed to break 1610 and the upmove is once again in question. We need to see if RIL bounces from previous lows or breaks this and continues to fall.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1477, 1350
Resistances: 1577,1689

Infy - Infy is closed near an important support of 1334. If infy is able to close to day above that support it is a good sign, else we could be in for some downside.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1334, 1121
Resistances: 1445, 1537

October 15, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday Nifty was unable to hold its gains in the opening and closed flat. Asia is down. Nifty will open gap down. If we close above 3451 we could see the Nifty consolidating, else we could see new lows.
Trading strategy: If Nifty closes below 3450 close longs.
Supports: 3451, 3248
Resistances:3500, 3693-3700

October 15, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL close near an important support/resistance of 1609. Yesterday was also a doji. Market is clearly undecided. For a RIL to continue an up move it have close above 1600.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1592, 1477
Resistances: 1610,1815

Infy - Infy seems to be developing a nice upmove starting from Friday. Let us see if this continues or is arrested. The next resistance is 1440, which Infy has to break to sustain the uptrend.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1333, 1121
Resistances: 1445, 1537

October 14, 2008, Nifty

US markets surged last night. Asia is up today. Nifty should open up today. Nifty is still oversold and will move up. For a sustained up move Nifty has to break and hold above 3500.
Trading strategy: Stay long with strict stop losses at supports.
Supports: 3473, 3248
Resistances:3500, 3693-3700

October 14, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday was an inside day for RIL. This is indicates a trend reversal.
Trading Strategy: If RIL holds above 1613, then go long.
Supports: 1477, 1350
Resistances: 1613,1815

Infy - Infy closed above its 5 EMA, to close at 1318. This is a good sign. Infy needs to move above 1440 to break its current downtrend.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1283-1300, 1121
Resistances: 1440, 1537

October 13, 2008, Nifty

Asia is up. Nifty should open gap up. There were reversal signals on Tuesday and Wednesday last week however Nifty continued to fall. Nifty is clearly oversold and is ready for a bounce. For a sustained up move Nifty has to break 3500.
Trading strategy: Go long with strict stop losses at supports.
Supports: 3248, 3198
Resistances:3486-3500, 3693-3700

October 13, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL has to break 1623 to be able to break the current downtrend. If that happens we can look for a recovery.
Trading Strategy: Close shorts. If RIL holds above 1623, then go long.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1623,1815

Infy - Infy did not break its support at 1121. This is a good sign. Infy needs to move above 1300 to break its current downtrend.
Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1121, 1000
Resistances: 1293-1300,1440

October 10, 2008, Nifty

US markets have been hammered overnight. We will open gap down. It is unlikely that 3350 will hold. But if it does we could see a rally.

Trading Strategy: Look for a bounce from supports or a break of supports.
Supports: 3555-3537, 3486
Resistances: 3745, 3823

We are 75% done with the October fall that we had predicted on September 26. It is not over yet but the end is in sight.

October 10, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - - RIL failed to break out of its down trend on Wednesday. The next support for RIL is 1350, at which point we would close our short and take our profit.
Trading Strategy: Stay Short with a strict stop loss at resistances. If RIL breaks 1682 and holds, then go long. Take profits at 1350.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1682,1815

Infy - Infy Coverage

Infosys - Starting coverage

IT has been hammered more than other sectors in the last few weeks. Infy will be declaring results tomorrow. So we though we will provide a technical perspective on Infy.

In the short term Infy is clearly in a downtrend (duh!). Hammer candle on October 8 indicates a possible reversal of this. To break the downtrend, Infy has to move above 1440. Infy has a strong support at 1121. Let us hope that is not broken.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1121, 1000
Resistances: 1326,1440

October 8, 2008, Nifty

Asian markets are down, we should open gap down. Yesterday was a doji candle on the nifty indicating a possible trend reversal. We will look for confirmation of that today.

Trading Strategy: Look for a bounce from supports or a break of supports.
Supports: 3555-3537, 3486
Resistances: 3745, 3823

October 8, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Yesterday was an inside day for RIL. This indicates a trend reversal. We will wait for confirmation of this.

Trading Strategy: Stay Short with a strict stop loss at resistances. If RIL breaks 1748 and holds, then go long.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1748,1815

October 7, 2008, Nifty

The Dow Jones was down 700 points at one point last night, but recovered to close at 9955 just below the 10000 mark. Asian markets are down today. Nifty will open gap down, but there is a strong possibility of a recovery during the day.

Trading Strategy: Look for a bounce from supports or a break of supports. 3555 will be an important number to watch towards the end of the day.
Supports: 3555, 3300
Resistances: 3774, 3823

October 7, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL made a year-low yesterday and closed at 1641. Technicals look quite ugly now.
Trading Strategy: Short with a strict stop loss at resistances.
Supports: 1350, 1166
Resistances: 1748,1815

October 6, 2008, Nifty

Asian markets are down. Nifty should open gap down. We need to see if it can bounce back from previous low of 3715. This seems unlikely. This time if we break 3790 and then 3715 we could see a large fall.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 3790, 3715
Resistances: 3853,

October 6, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke all its supports on Friday to close just below the previous low of 1765. To show a sign of recovery, RIL has to break 1827. However that seems unlikely.

Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1745, 1683
Resistances: 1827, 1888-1900,

October 3, 2008, Nifty

US markets have not closed yet but are down intra-day. Nifty should probably open gap down on Friday. If the Nifty closes above 3927 it is a good sign. Else we could be in for a prolonged down move.

Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 3927, 3861
Resistances: 3943, 4077

Oct 3, 2008 Single Stock

RIL On Wednesday, RIL failed to break its resistances and closed the day down two percent. Friday will be a crucial day. RIL has to break resistances or at least hold above the support of 1805.

Trading strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1873, 1805
Resistances: 1938, 1996

October 1, 2008, Nifty

Nifty rallied more than 200 points from the day's low to close at 3921. Asia is up. We will open gap up. Nifty needs to hold above 3967 to sustain a rally.

Trading Strategy: Go long with strict stop losses.
Supports: 3919, 3861
Resistances: 3967, 4014

October 1, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- RIL did not make a new low yesterday. It showed strength although it did not bounce back as smartly as the rest of the market. In the medium term (weeks) RIL needs to break 2110 to start an uptrend.

Trading Strategy: Go long with a stop loss of 1800. Close positions at the end of the day since tomorrow is a holiday.
Supports: 1800, 1765
Resistances: 1968, 1998-2008