Nifty broke the support of 3790. We now need to see how much the nifty will fall and where it will take support for the next bounce back. US Markets have been hammered overnight. Nifty should open gap down.
We are already seeing the big fall we had predicted on September 26. However as we predicted at the end of this fall there will be a strong rally.

Trading Strategy: Those who had gone short on Friday and Monday have made huge profits. Stay short with a stop loss at 3880. Take your profits today do not wait for tomorrow.
Supports: 3617, 3555
Resistances: 388, 3982

September 30, 2008,Single Stock

RIL - RIL closed below its 5-SMA yesterday. We are looking for action on the downside. We need to see if RIL can hold above its crucial support of 1765.

Trading Strategy: Short with strict stop losses
Supports: 1800, 1765
Resistances: 1992-2000, 2070

September 29, 2008, Nifty

Asia is up a touch and oil is flat. We should open up. The Nifty needs to break 4096 to sustain an up move. We are again looking at 3790 to provide a bottom. If Nifty touches 3790 in this week, it will probably be broken.

Trading Strategy: Stay short with a stop loss at 4096
Supports: 3919, 3790
Resistances: 4000, 4096

September 29, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL fell more than 3% in Friday trading. We should see a bit of pull back today. RIL needs to break a resistance of 2015 to be able to sustain an up move.

Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 1920, 1800
Resistances: 2000-2015, 2070

September 26, 2008, Nifty

As expected Nifty was volatile with a 130 point difference between high and low. Nifty went below its 5-SMA yesterday. We will wait for confirmation of that sell-signal today, since yesterday was expiry and so price action was not reliable. Also now Nifty is below 5-SMA which is below 20-SMA which is below 50-SMA. This indicates an extremely bearish mood in the market. October could see a major fall.
Asia flat, and so is oil. We should have a muted opening.

Trading Strategy: Go short with a stop loss at 4180
Supports:4051, 3919
Resistances: 4160-80, 4260-70

September 26, 2008, Single Stock

RIL RIL closed down 1% yesterday. Expiry was not as bad as we expected. In the medium term RIL needs to break 2126 on the upside for a sustained
rally. On the downside we have support at the recent lows of 1765.

Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 2029, 1990
Resistances: 2045, 2126

September 25, 2008, Nifty

Today is options expiry. At yesterday's close September contract was quoting at almost 30 point premium to the spot. We can expect some volatility today!
Asia is down and so is Oil. We may open flat.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces.
Supports: 4110, 4051
Resistances: 4178-89, 4268

September 25, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- RIL was up almost 2% yesterday. But it could not break the resistance between 2050-2070. It closed just below its 20-SMA. RIL has not yet established any intermediate trends. The next few days will be crucial to establishing a clear trend in either direction.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Expiry is today so there will be wild swings. Keep strict stops losses.
Supports: 2000-2037, 1920
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2126-2146

September 24, 2008, Nifty

Yesterday, Nifty closed near its day-low and just below its 5-SMA. Asia is down and so is Oil. We should open flat or a touch down. We are looking for a positive break out at 4158. On the downside we see strong support at 4051
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions
Supports: 4110, 4051
Resistances: 4158-78, 4268

Sep 24, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL is now below its 5-SMA. It closed near its low yesterday and did not bounce back from any of its supports. We need to see if it is able to close above 2000 today.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions as expiry is tomorrow. Keep strict stops losses.
Supports: 2000, 1920
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2146

September 23, 2008, Nifty

The Nifty broke our support of 4214 yesterday. Asia is down, Oil is up sharply. We could see Nifty open down and come under pressure throughout the day. 4200 will probably be broken in the opening. The next support for Nifty is at 4130.

Trading Strategy: Play for resistances/supports break outs and bounces.We are near expiry, avoid positional (overnight) trades and keep strict stops.
Supports: 4201, 4130
Resistances: 4224, 4289-4305

September 23, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - Except for a a short period after opening, RIL failed to show a strong move above the resistances. RIL will be down today, but we need to see if it can take support from 5-SMA at 1975 and bounce back from there.
Trading Strategies: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions
Supports: 1975, 1920
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2146

September 22, 2008, Nifty

The downtrend that started on 8 September was broken with Friday's move. Nifty has broken its 5-SMA and is close to 20, 50 SMA. If these are also broken we could see a strong rally for the Nifty.
Asia is up, but so is oil. We could open up a little and then pull back later.
Trading Strategy: Play for resistances/supports break outs and bounces. If 4300 is taken out then go long.
Supports: 4214, 4123
Resistances: 4289-4305, 4398

September 22, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL is now above is 5-SMA, but this is not a reliable signal in itself. We would like to wait for the uptrend to be established before taking a long position.
Trading Strategy: Play for supports/resistances breaks or bounces. Avoid overnight positions.
Resistances: 2050-2070, 2146
Supports: 1920, 1765

September 19,2008, Nifty

3790 saved the day and we rallied smartly from there. Yesterday was a classic hammer candle, which jumped from a support. This is a strong buy signal. Asia is up, Oil is flat. We should open up a touch.
Trading Strategy: If you had gone long today, wait and watch to book profits. If nifty does not open gap up, go long.
Supports:3900-3919,3799
Resistances: 4085, 4123.
Long term view(3-6 months): We have rallied yesterday and probably will today. We are not done with this down move yet. If 3790 holds over the next few weeks, the bottom will be in place. Gradually start building long term investments as we are reaching the end of the bear phase. There could still be a couple of falls over the next few weeks, but it will be difficult to exactly time the end of the bear phase.

September 19, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- We saw a strong rally from yesterday's lows to end the day up 3.3%. Volumes were also high. RIL closed above its resistance zone. We should be in for a good day today as well.
Trading Strategy: If you had taken long position at yesterday's close, book your profits today. Else look for break or support, failure to break resistances.
Supports: 1900-1910, 1800
Resistances: 1998, 2080

September 18. 2008, Nifty

Asia is being hammered. US markets crashed overnight. Oil is up. We will open gap down. The action will be on the downside. We are looking to see if 3790 holds.
Trading Strategy: If we do not open gap down go short. Else wait for break of supports to short.
Supports: 3919, 3790
Resistances: 4091-4100, 4176

September 18, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke the resistance in the opening but did not hold above it, for long. We still had a higher high and a lower low than Tuesday. This could be the beginning of a new uptrend. However we need to wait and watch for confirmation.
Trading Strategy: Wait and watch. Close open long positions. Play for positive or negative break outs of resistances and supports.
Supports: 1800, 1768
Resistances: 1906-1935, 2020

September 17, 2008, Nifty

Nifty recovered from yesterday's lows and closed near its opening - A sign that this fall might be ending. Asia is up, oil is at 94. We will see a bounce back for the Nifty. However we need to look for a signal which will confirm that this bounce will last, till then stay ready to hit stop losses, or if you want to be safe, avoid taking a position.
Trading Strategy: Go long with stop loss at supports.
Supports: 3919, 3790
Resistances: 4091, 4167

September 17, 2008, Single Stock

RIL -We are looking at a very strong buy signal in RIL . A doji on Monday, followed by a fully engulfing green candle yesterday. There is a strong resistance at 1930-40. That should be taken out in the opening. If it is, we will now take a risk and go long on RIL.
Trading Strategy: Go long if 1940 is broken, with strict stop losses at supports
Supports: 1800, 1768
Resistances: 1930-40 , 2020

September 16, 2008, Nifty

We were safe in waiting for which side the break out would happen. We lost out on a money making opportunity but we saved our capital. Asia is down and so is oil. We should open down a little. The big number to look for is 3790. Will Nifty hold previous lows and confirm that the bottom is forming or will it fall through again.

Trading strategy: If we do not open gap down go short, else look for break/bounce from supports.
Supports: 3848, 3790
Resistances: 4118, 4145

Long Term(months):From a look at this year's charts we are in the third big move down. This should be the last big down move for this year. From the low point of the end of this move we should start going up. Wait for the end of this move and then take long positions with a time-horizon of 3-6 months.

September 16, 2008, Single Stock

RIL: RIL broke all supports yesterday (as did everything else in the market). However an interesting aspect is that RIL did not fall as much as the rest of the market. We should start looking for a bottom for reliance. We need to confirm if RIL will take support at 1768/1683.
Trading Strategy: Go short with strict stop losses. Watch for a bounce at supports and switch positions if that happens.
Supports: 1768, 1683
Resistances: 2095, 2171

September 15, 2008, Nifty

Nifty finished last week deep in the red. US futures have been hammered this morning. Oil is down. We should probably open down a bit. 4159 is now a key support point which has to hold if the Nifty is to bounce back.

Trading Strategy: Look for a break of 4159 or a bounce back from there.
Supports: 4159, 3790
Resistances: 4284, 4336-4350

September 15, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL closed near the 1920 support we had given. The next support is at 1812. We feel that RIL could be in for a prolonged down move if it does not bounce back today.
Trading Strategy: Go short if 1920 support is broken. Else go long with a strict stop loss at 1920
Supports: 1920, 1812
Resistances: 2027-2039, 2094-2100

Weekly Review, Week ended September 12, 2008

RIL - Last week RIL broke most supports and closed the week at 1919.7, dangerously close to its year low of 1920. We now see an inflection point for RIL. It will either take support from this point and bounce up, or it will fall through the bottom. The volumes in the last few days has been extremely high,and RIL is now in the oversold region. We feel there is greater chance of a bounce, rather than a fall through the bottom. However we will look for confirmation this week.

Nifty - We were a little surprised by the sharp upmove at the beginning of last week and hit our stops on Tuesday/Wednesday. However near perfect call on Thursday and good trading on Friday meant that we ended the week in the green. Nifty is now close to its next support of 4159. Should this hold we could see a rally, else we may go all the way down to 3800. The news from the weekly charts is not good. Two weeks back we had a doji, and since last week we have seen a negative break out. However we are close to strong supports so wait for confirmation.

September 12, 2008, Nifty

With yesterday's move the short term uptrend that started on 21 August is now over. Nifty close was near our support of 4292. Oil is down, Asia is up, we should up today. Look for 4214 as the next support. If that is not broken we could see a bounce back.
Trading Strategy: With our near perfect call yesterday we have recovered our losses of Tuesday and are now in the green for the week. Book profits in your shorts. Wait and watch.
Supports: 4214,4259
Resistances: 4296, 4360-4371

September 12, 2008, Single Stock

RIL- Not only did RIL fall 4% yesterday, volumes were also quite high. Technicals continue to be weak, though we could see a minor pull back today. The next support for RIL is at its 52-week low of 1920. If that also breaks, we could see a prolonged downside move in RIL.
Trading Strategy: We hope you made good profits yesterday. If you did not book your profits on your short yesterday, the do so today. Wait and watch. 1920 is an important support.
Supports: 1920, 1812
Resistances: 2074-2089, 2165-2179

September 11, 2008, Nifty

Nifty closed at 4400 yesterday. Nifty broke both resistances we gave yesterday, however it did not break a strong resistance at 4380-85. We will need to see if this holds today. If not, we could see a big fall all the way to 4300. Asian markets are down a bit and oil is flat. We will have a muted opening.
Trading Strategy: Wait to see if 4380 is broken. If it is then go short with a stop loss at 4426.
Supports:4380-4385, 4292
Resistances: 4426 (strong), 4482

September 11, 2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL broke the support of 2128 yesterday, however it held above the second support of 2065. RIL is now below 5-SMA. We now expect a break out on the downside.
Trading Strategy: If you had gone short yesterday, watch for the break out. Keep a stop loss at resistances. If you have not gone short, short today with strict stop losses.
Supports:2052-2065, 1920
Resistances: 2110, 2175-2182

September 10, 2008, Nifty

Nifty was marginally down yesterday. We see strength in the fact that there was no major pullback after such a smart rally on Monday. Yesterday's candle was fully engulfed by Monday's candle. This indicates the end of a trend. We expect a break out on the positive or negative side soon. We see a greater chance of a break out on the positive side, however wait for confirmation before trading.
Oil is down and so is Asia. We will probably open slightly down.
Trading:Based on yesterday's trading advice you might be long today. Wait to see if supports are broken, before booking the loss.
Supports: 4438, 4391
Resistances: 4522-4539, 4649

September 10,2008, Single Stock

RIL - RIL did not break out of its resistance barrier yesterday. Yesterday was also a doji candle for RIL. We are now expecting a break-out on up or downside.
Trading Strategy: Watch for break of supports/resistances and then take a position with strict stop losses. Take profits quickly as we expect market to be volatile.
Supports: 2127, 2065
Resistances: 2161,2203

September 9, 2008, Nifty

Nifty rallied smartly yesterday. We did not expect such a strong move. Nifty is now above its 5 SMA and also 5 SMA has gone above 20 SMA. These are both buy signals, but we would like to ignore moving averages, when there are sharp moves. We are seeing an uptrend set in and would like to see if that can be confirmed today. Asia is down, but so is oil. We expect a minor pull back today.
Trading strategy: If nifty goes below 4440 go short. Close position and go long at end of day if nifty is above 4450.
Supports: 4440-47, 4399
Resistances: 4533-4558, 4649

September 9, 2008, Single Stocks

RIL- RIL opened gap up like rest of the market, but failed to break out of the resistance zone. We will not see a sustained upmove in RIL till it closes strongly above the resistance. There could be a pull back today after yesterday's rally.
Trading Strategy: Look for break outs at supports/resistances to make small profits. Do not take large positions
Supports: 2065-2080, 1920
Resistances: 2144, 2220

Weekly review, week ended September 5, 2008

Last week with 4 days of trading was quite volatile, we made good calls through the week and an excellent trading on Tuesday made the week as a whole hugely profitable. On the weekly chart last week was a doji, indicating indecision. The week ahead has started off with a bang today, though it looks like it will be short-lived. Looking back we should have expected the sharp moves today.
We also started covering RIL. So far we have not had any conviction trading calls on RIL, though we expect this to change once we get more familiar with the stock.
Looking ahead we expect the volatility to die down by the end of the week and a clear uptrend to be established.

September 8,2008 - Nifty

Nifty fell as we predicted on Friday, however most of the move was in the opening so there was not much trading opportunity. Nifty did not break a support at 4319. Asian markets are up, but oil is down. We could open a gap up. If we hold above 4413 then take a long position. A close above 4413 would also mean that the 5-day SMA will go above the 20-day SMA. This is a strong buy signal.
Trading Strategy: Close open shorts, Take a long position if nifty holds above 4413.
Supports:4300-4306, 4267
Resistances: 4400-4413, 4447

September 8, 2008 - RIL

RIL did not break the support at 2052. Which means that the uptrend that began on 28th August is still intact. We can hope for a bounce back from here. However there is a strong resistance zone from 2128-2145.
Trading Strategy: Close any open shorts, if possible take a long position with strict stop losses.
Supports: 2052, 1920
Resistances: 2128-2145, 2183

September 5, 2008

Market: Nifty broke the first resistance given yesterday, but held above the 4419 mark which we had specified as the second resistance. Nifty closed just above the support at 4446. Nifty looks like it will break a few more supports today, but look for a bounce back. Last night was bad in the US, Asia is down and oil is flat. We will open gap down.
Single Stocks: Right now we only cover RIL. RIL failed to break out of its resistance zone yesterday. It is looking quite weak technically.
Trading Strategy Nifty: If you did not short yesterday, take a short position today with strict stop losses. If nifty closes above 4410 then go long.
Supports: Nifty- 4404-4416, 4372
Resistances: Nifty - 4543, 4649
Trading Strategy Single Stocks: Short RIL with strict stop loss at resistances.
Supports: RIL - 2099, 2052
Resistances: 2161, 2222

September 4, 2008

Nifty rallied more than 3% on Tuesday. Those who took my advice and went long made huge amounts of money.
The downtrend has clearly been broken, however to establish a clear uptrend is going to be difficult for the nifty after such a strong rally in a single day. We need to see more sustained moves before we can be sure. Till then play for small gains and keep strict stop losses. Asian markets are down and oil is up. We should open a touch down.
Trading Strategy: Look to see if supports hold, if they do not then go short with a strict stop loss.
Supports: 4446, 4419
Resistances: 4544, 4649,

Happy Ganesh Chaturti to RIL - September 4, 2008

To celebrate Ganesh Chaturti (and our great call on September 2) we are beginning our analysis of individual stocks. The choice of the first stock is a no-brainer. It has to be RIL, with approx 11% weightage in the Nifty, it is surely everyone's favourite. (Forgive my graph, i am stuck to copying and pasting graphs from my excel worksheet. Hopefully i will make enough money to buy cool software, but till then...)

While it is quite likely that the technicals for RIL and the Nifty will be similar, we hope that we will be able to identity price action signals specific to RIL. Here goes.

RIL closed at 2212 on Tuesday. This is just short of 2215 which is the beginning of a major resistance zone. Reliance like the rest of the market has broken the intermediate downtrend, however the sharp up-move on Tuesday means that sustaining an uptrend is going to be difficult. Reliance will need to break out of the current resistance barrier to mover higher.

Trading Strategy: Stay Nuetral. If the stock breaks resitance zone, then take a long with strict stop loss at the resistance.

Supports: 2163, 2099

Resistances: 2215-2245, 2300

September 2, 2008

Yesterday was another doji, indicating indecision in the market. We expect a break out on the positive side. If nifty breaks out above 4370 this will mean that the down trend is over. However we still need to see if an uptrend will be established or if the market will move sideways from here on. Oil is down to 111.15 and Asian markets are up. We should open in the green.

Trading strategy: If you did not go long yesterday, then take a long position today with stop loss at the supports. Also since tomorrow is a holiday, consider closing positions at today's close.
Supports: 4280-4300, 4255
Resistances: 4365, 4404

Weekly Review - Week ended August 29, 2008

The week started started indecisively. We could not draw any strong signals from price action. However the supports and resistances calculated were good and gave small profit making opportunities.
Towards the end of the week a clearer picture emerged and we made a killing on the 28th and 29th with near perfect calls.
In the coming week (Starting September 1) we are looking for signals of an end to the intermediate down trend and possibly the establishment of an intermediate uptrend.

September 1, 2008

On Friday, Nifty went up almost 150 points. With this intermediate downtrend (which began on August 12) has been challenged but not fully broken. For investors watch the next day or two before going long. For traders we need to look for signals which will confirm the end of the downtrend and the starting of an uptrend. Asian markets are weak we should open down.

Trading Strategy: After the opening see if the Nifty holds above supports. If it does then go long.
Supports: 4300-4310, 4253
Resistances: 4364, 4425-4434